Commitment
NDIS cost growth
Is the government meeting its own target to rein in NDIS cost growth?
NDIS cost growth: off track.
- Latest
- 11.3%
- Since the government took office
- Worse+$17.9bn
- Over the past year
- Worse+$4.6bn
NDIS scheme expenses ($ billion)
- Nominal
The commitment
Slow annual growth in NDIS costs to no more than 8% by 1 July 2026.
How the verdict is reached
On track if the latest reported annual growth in scheme costs is 8% or less; off track if it is above 8%.
Today: Latest annual growth is 11.3%, above the 8% target.
What this is
The National Disability Insurance Scheme funds support for Australians with permanent and significant disability. It is jointly funded by the Commonwealth and the states and is now one of the largest items in the Budget.
Why it matters
Governments agreed the scheme's cost growth must slow to be sustainable. Missing the target means a larger share of taxes goes to one program, and less to everything else.
More from the figures
- NDIS expenses rose from $28.6 billion in 2021-22 to $46.5 billion in 2024-25, and were $50.2 billion in the 12 months to March 2026.
- The government's own impact analysis says the 8% target 'would not be met by July 2026'. A new target of 5-6% growth was set in January 2026.
- The 2026-27 Budget puts NDIS expenses at $56.1 billion, including state contributions. The scheme supports 774,456 participants (March 2026).
How it’s calculated
Scheme expenses by financial year from the Department of Finance estimates brief. Latest 12-month growth and participant numbers from the NDIS Reforms Impact Analysis.