Each chart puts two official series side by side, so you can see whether one rises when the other does, at the same time or a year or two later. The number r sums up how closely they track each other.
Read these with care
Two things moving together does not prove one causes the other. Most of these are also driven by things not shown, such as world energy prices, the pandemic, or interest rates. Each chart says what else is at play. Use them as a starting point for questions, not as proof.
Figures as at 7 Oct 2026, 3:36 pm AEDT
Commonwealth spending and inflation
Do years of higher federal spending line up with higher inflation?
Little or no link at the same time
Compare with inflation (year to June):
r = 0.00(little or no link, 23 years, 2003-04 to 2025-26).
Commonwealth spending, % of GDP (left scale)
Inflation (year to June) (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Spending adds to demand, and the Reserve Bank says demand beyond what the economy can supply pushes up prices. But spending also jumps in downturns, when inflation is usually low (2009 and 2020), which weakens any simple link. The lag setting asks whether inflation follows spending a year or two later.
When governments take a bigger share of the economy, does inflation follow?
Little or no link at the same time
Compare with inflation:
r = 0.14(little or no link, 90 quarters, Mar qtr 2004 to Jun qtr 2026).
Public demand, % of the economy (left scale)
Inflation, annual (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Public demand is spending and investment by federal, state and local governments together. It is the measure the Reserve Bank looks at when it talks about government demand. Other things move inflation too: world energy prices, interest rates, wages and the exchange rate.
How does the Reserve Bank’s cash rate move with inflation?
A weak positive link at the same time
Compare with inflation:
r = 0.30(a weak positive link, 90 quarters, Mar qtr 2004 to Jun qtr 2026).
RBA cash rate (left scale)
Inflation, annual (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
The Reserve Bank raises rates when inflation is too high and cuts when it is low, so the two tend to rise together at first. Higher rates are meant to bring inflation down over the following one to two years, which is what the lag setting lets you look for.
Do home prices rise faster when more people are arriving?
A moderate negative link at the same time
Compare with home prices:
r = -0.54(a moderate negative link, 55 quarters, Sep qtr 2012 to Mar qtr 2026).
Net overseas migration, past 12 months (left scale)
Home prices, annual change (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
More people need more homes, so faster population growth adds to housing demand. Interest rates, credit, tax settings and how many homes get built matter at least as much. The ABS home price series only starts in 2011, so this pair covers fewer years.
Does faster migration go with more or less growth for each person?
A moderate negative link at the same time
Compare with real GDP per person:
r = -0.40(a moderate negative link, 85 quarters, Mar qtr 2005 to Mar qtr 2026).
Net overseas migration, past 12 months (left scale)
Real GDP per person, annual change (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Migration adds workers and customers, which lifts total GDP. Whether it lifts GDP for each person depends on the skills migrants bring and whether housing and infrastructure keep up. COVID border closures in 2020 and 2021 dominate any short sample.
r = 0.49(a moderate positive link, 67 quarters, Mar qtr 2010 to Sep qtr 2026).
Unemployment rate (left scale)
Consumer sentiment (100 = neutral) (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Job security is one of the biggest influences on how households feel, along with interest rates and prices. Since 2022 confidence has been low even with low unemployment, which points to prices and rates.
Do households feel worse when mortgage rates rise?
A strong negative link at the same time
r = -0.68(a strong negative link, 29 quarters, Sep qtr 2019 to Sep qtr 2026).
Average variable mortgage rate (left scale)
Consumer sentiment (100 = neutral) (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Around a third of households have a mortgage, and rate rises cut straight into their budgets. The RBA’s mortgage rate series used here only starts in 2019.
How much does each extra dollar of debt cost in interest?
A very strong positive link at the same time
r = 0.93(a very strong positive link, 21 years, 2005-06 to 2025-26).
Gross debt, $ billion (left scale)
Interest payments, $ billion (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Interest costs depend on how much is borrowed and on the interest rate when each bond was issued. Cheap debt from 2020 and 2021 is being refinanced at higher rates, so interest costs can keep rising faster than debt for years.
Does productivity grow more slowly when government takes a bigger share of the economy?
Little or no link at the same time
Compare with labour productivity:
r = -0.15(little or no link, 86 quarters, Mar qtr 2005 to Jun qtr 2026).
Public demand, % of the economy (left scale)
Labour productivity, annual change (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Economists argue about this. Much of what governments produce, such as health care and education, is hard to measure, and measured productivity in those sectors grows slowly. That can drag on the national figure without anyone working less hard. Productivity also swings with the business cycle.
Does more money go overseas in years when more people arrive?
A moderate positive link at the same time
Compare with personal transfers sent overseas:
r = 0.43(a moderate positive link, 22 years, 2003-04 to 2024-25).
Net overseas migration, financial year (left scale)
Personal transfers sent overseas, $ billion (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
Both have grown over 20 years along with the population and incomes, so they will tend to rise together whatever the link between them. In 2020-21, when borders were closed and net migration was below zero, personal transfers barely changed. The ABS does not publish who sends the money or where it goes.
Do rents rise faster when more people are arriving?
A strong positive link at the same time
Compare with rents (CPI):
r = 0.63(a strong positive link, 85 quarters, Mar qtr 2005 to Mar qtr 2026).
Net overseas migration, past 12 months (left scale)
Rents (CPI), annual change (right scale)
This government
r runs from −1 to 1. Near 0 means the two don’t move together; near 1 they rise and fall together; near −1 one rises as the other falls. A link on its own does not show that one causes the other.
What else is going on
More people need more homes, so faster population growth adds to demand for rentals. Interest rates, how many homes are built and changes in household size matter too. The CPI rent measure covers existing leases as well as new ones, so it moves more slowly than advertised rents.